The Restaurant Ingredient Weather Report

Every month we process millions of restaurant purchases and read what kitchens actually paid their suppliers, delivery by delivery.

We price the same basket of twenty-two everyday ingredients in every market we cover, and report what it costs now against last month and against last year.

These are trade prices paid by real restaurants, not supermarket shelf prices. We track more than 40 countries and publish the four where the data is deepest.

35,000,000+restaurant purchase lines tracked

Updated 1 October 2026 · next update 1 November 2026

The long-term weather report

How the price of the tracked basket has changed in each market, year on year. This is the number that tells you whether your ingredient cost has actually changed.

United Kingdom
Steady
+0.5%
vs September 2025

A year on, this basket costs about the same. The pressure is elsewhere.

Change since last month: +0.9%
Australia
Steady
+1.0%
vs September 2025

A year on, this basket costs about the same. The pressure is elsewhere.

Change since last month: +0.4%
United Arab Emirates
Climbing
+12.5%
vs September 2025

Costs are well up on the year. Reforecast your food cost now, not next quarter.

Change since last month: +0.6%
Saudi Arabia
Rising
+3.7%
vs September 2025

Costs have drifted up over the year. Check your highest-spend lines.

Change since last month: +0.4%
12-month scaleFalling under -1.0%Steady -1.0% to 1.5%Rising 1.5% to 5.0%Climbing over 5.0%

The monthly weather report

The fastest rising and fastest falling item from the basket in each market, so you can see short-term changes the yearly figure hides.

United Kingdom Basket: +0.9%
Rising fastest Tomatoes +6.9%
Falling fastest Lemons -2.0%
Australia Basket: +0.4%
Rising fastest Avocado +16.0%
Falling fastest Lemons -3.5%
United Arab Emirates Basket: +0.6%
Rising fastest Sugar +3.0%
Falling fastest Lemons -2.1%
Saudi Arabia Basket: +0.4%
Rising fastest Lettuce +2.3%
Falling fastest Avocado -2.0%

The biggest single price increase was avocado in Australia, up 16.0%. The sharpest fall was lemons in Australia, down 3.5%. No market’s basket as a whole moved more than 0.9%.

The chip is how that market’s whole basket moved since last month, coloured on the monthly scale shown under the thirteen-month strip. The two items under it are the sharpest single moves, which is why a basket can sit almost still while individual ingredients do not: the risers and the fallers cancel each other out. All three figures are the change in what restaurants actually paid.

The last thirteen months, by market

Each block is one month. The colour is how that market’s total basket price changed compared to the month before: blue got cheaper, green held, yellow got more expensive and red got sharply more expensive.

United Kingdom
Sep↑
Oct↑
Nov→
Dec→
Jan↑
Feb→
Mar→
Apr→
May↓
Jun↓
Jul→
Aug→
Sep↑
Australia
Sep→
Oct↓
Nov↑
Dec→
Jan↑
Feb↓
Mar↑
Apr↑
May↓
Jun→
Jul→
Aug↓
Sep↑
United Arab Emirates
Sep↑
Oct→
Nov→
Dec↑
Jan→
Feb→
Mar↑
Apr↑
May↑
Jun↑
Jul→
Aug→
Sep↑
Saudi Arabia
Sep→
Oct→
Nov↓
Dec→
Jan→
Feb→
Mar↑
Apr↑
May↑
Jun→
Jul→
Aug→
Sep↑
Monthly scale↓Cheaper under -0.25%→Flat -0.25% to 0.25%↑More expensive 0.25% to 1.0%↑Sharply up over 1.0%

What’s in the basket

Twenty-two ingredients, the same list in every market:

Avocado · Bananas · Beef · Butter · Cheese · Chicken · Coffee · Cooking oil · Cucumber · Eggs · Flour · Lamb · Lemons · Lettuce · Milk · Olive oil · Onions · Potatoes · Prawns · Rice · Sugar · Tomatoes

Updated on the first of every month. Each edition reads the month just closed. What these moves do to a margin once they reach the invoice is the subject of The Spread.

Based on the prices restaurants actually paid their suppliers, per kilo, litre or piece, taken from goods received rather than from published price lists. Each market reading is a Jevons index, the geometric average of the price change on every basket item that was bought in both months. A move to half or double the previous price or beyond is excluded as a likely unit or pack error. Prices paid move for reasons other than the market, including grade, pack size and delivery-to-delivery variation. The latest month is provisional: deliveries are still being recorded when it is published, so it and earlier months can be revised slightly in the next edition. Markets are added as they build up enough history. Figures describe activity on the Supy platform and may not represent the wider market. This is not an official measure of food inflation.